IHME’s 60,000 declaration was a bomb let off by the White House. It sent a clear message— this virus is overblown hype. We got this. 60,000 is a number Americans can “tolerate.” It sounds vaguely like a bad flu. 5/


This edition of's daily thread solidified something for me: the most fascinating and confounding aspect of Covid19 is the crazy tight coupling between information and physical reality. The results of a predictive model can become a *primary driver* of subsequent events!

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I.e., any model worth its salt would need to include itself in its structure! And in a highly non-linear, game-theoretic fashion to boot. Which I find...pretty wild.

This to me is clear evidence that an epidemic occurring in today's tech and media environment is a New Thing.

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